Here's my story, I started on March 3, 2014 by just watching sugar. No exercise, no "diet", just using MFP to track sugar and keep it below 15g for the day. You can see my history to see the up and down effect. I was also using a FitBit scale at work (part of a competition) to monitor body fat percentage. Body fat was the same to worse. Then on March 22, 2014 I switched to the Total Six Pack Abs (TSPA) program from musclehack.com, the diet and workout routine. I was not getting the 1.5 lbs. of fat loss per week that the program promised. I did a little research and found out how inaccurate the FitBit scales can be. I bought $15 body fat calipers from The Vitamin Shoppe. The calipers agreed with my Health-O-Meter scale at the house, that I wasn't at 28-29% body fat, but at 25%. I redid the TSPA formulas with the correct body fat percentage, and lo and behold, I started dropping fat and gaining muscle. The FitBit numbers had me eating 2,200 calories per day, which was just maintaining where I was. The corrected numbers have me eating 1,800 calories.
So my advice is get TSPA, plastic body fat calipers, and get started. Do like Mark says and weigh and readjust on Saturdays and you will see progress.